Jim Rogers, Crown Business (2013/2)
基本的な投資スタンスは、従来と同じです。
- アジアはロング
- 中国もロング
- アメリカはショート
アレと思うのは、ミヤンマーと北朝鮮は、ロングということ。
シンガポール移住についても、同スタンス。
If history affirms anything, it is the proposition put forth by the Greeks that “nothing endures but change.” It originated with the philosopher Heraclitus in the sixth century B.C., when he informed us aphoristically that it is not possible to step twice into the same river. Success in life is measured by the ability to anticipate change, and I came to Singapore in response to the realization that the world is in the midst of a historic shift, a dramatic reshaping of the terrain, a decline of US leadership in the world and a commensurate rise in Asia. p.3
リーマン・ショック以降の世界については、債務が世界を変えるとコメント。
The staggering debt loads in many countries will lead to major changes in the way we all live and work. Many old institutions, traditions, political parties, governments, cultures, even nations will decline or collapse or simply disappears, just as has always happened in times of political and economic turmoil. p.3
BRICsは悲観的です。
O’Neill’s ignorance of Brazilian history has led him, today, to disregard the fact that the country owes its prosperity almost exclusively to the bull market in commodities, which like all bull markets will come to an end. p.100
アメリカとFRBについては厳しいコメント
New York is the economic and cultural capital of what is now the largest debtor nation in the world, the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. p.116
The people in Washington who have put the nation on life support make up a vast orchestra of incompetents, and the first among equals was the man who conducted that orchestra for nineteen years. P.120
今回のアメリカ政府の混乱の後だと、債務国のリスクを実感するというところでしょうか。
第９章は、Earstern Airlines CEO Frank Borman の言葉。
“Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell”
Look back at the numerous pronouncements, the numerous projections Bernanke has made over the years, and it quickly becomes evident that he has seldom been right about anything. p.130
過剰流動性の罪については、
He has yet to figure out that the present crisis is one not of liquidity, but of solvency. There is plenty of liquidity around. Part of the reason for the crisis, in fact, is that American and European central banks, for ten or fifteen years, supplied too much liquidity to the market. p.130
アメリカについては、悲観的 p.138
What will America do next time? We cannot quadruple our debt again.
Soometime in this decade the whole system is going to collapse.
The next time it happens, there will not be enough mony, and not nealy enough faith in government. p.138
The United States has had three central banks in its history. The first two disappeared. This one will undoubtedly fail too. p.139
日本についても、厳しいコメント p.132 以降
Propping up the country’s failing entities, the Japanese government extended the crisis. p.133
日本の歴史についても触れているのが印象的です。
In 1966, Japan experienced a staggering collapse. Every stockbroker in Japan went bankrupt. Every broker. Was it the end of the world? No. Every broker and every investment bank was allowed to go bankrupt. Over the next twenty-five years, Japan enjoyed phenomenal success, p.133
中国の不動産については、
There has been a real estate bubble in China, which will lead to bankruptcies in the next few years. p.185
there is nothing to prevent China from experiencing a recession.
But no matter how smart they are, they are still bureaucrats, and that makes a recession not merely possible, but probable. p.220
１０年ほど前、コモディティに強気だったことを覚えていますが、今度は、農業。
I am very optimistic about agriculture moving forward. It will be a lucrative sector of the world economy for the next tow or three decades p.236
私も、農業に近い仕事に移りましたが、さて、どうなるでしょうか。
